Works in Progress
Labor Reallocation After Pandemic Unemployment Insurance Expiration
Solo Author.
The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act implemented the largest recession-driven expansion of unemployment insurance benefits in U.S. history. Exploiting cross-state variation in the timing of benefit expiration, I provide the first estimates of the effect of benefit expiration on the probability a worker reemployed into a different occupation. I find expiration increased the probability that workers reemployed to a different occupation within the same field but did not meaningfully increase reemployment into an entirely new field. Importantly, these results suggest that the employment gains from expiration did not come at the cost of human capital loss.
Journal Publications
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The Case for Using Subsidies for Retirement Plans to Fix Social Security with Andrew Biggs and Alicia Munnell Journal of Retirement, 11(4): 8–33, 2024 Tax expenditures for employer-sponsored retirement plans are expensive — costing about $185 billion in 2020. However, this subsidy fails to meet its policy goals of increasing national savings or expanding plan coverage, and the tax preferences increasingly benefit high earners. Therefore, the case is strong for eliminating this expenditure entirely or limiting contributions or accumulations in tax-favored plans. While reducing this subsidy might somewhat lower interest in offering work-based savings plans, alternative arrangements could ensure that all workers have an organized way to save for retirement. Reallocating the proceeds from eliminating the tax expenditures to Social Security would bolster the backbone of the nation’s retirement system. |
Other Publications
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Why Have Inflation Expectations Surged Recently? A Historical Perspective with Philippe Andrade Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Current Policy Perspectives, 25-14, 2025 How much of the most recent surge in inflation expectations, which began in March 2025, has been the result of the usual effect of abnormal price movements? How much is left unexplained and may signal a potential de-anchoring of inflation expectations? How do the most recent and the pandemic-era surges in expectations compare with the two surges in the Great Inflation episode of the 1970s? This brief addresses those questions using data on inflation expectations from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers and a simple regression model in which households form their inflation expectations based on their perception of movements in food and gas prices as well as broad-based inflation. |
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Should Social Security Invest in Equities? with Alicia Munnell Center for Retirement Research at Boston College Issue Brief, 23-14, 2023 The notion of governments investing in equities through retirement program trust funds is a viable concept that has been proven feasible, safe, and effective in both Canada and the United States. So, in theory, this idea could work with the U.S. Social Security program. But one critical component is currently missing: Social Security no longer has a sizable trust fund to invest. And rebuilding the trust fund through additional taxes or borrowing may not be either wise or feasible. Thus, while the mechanics are totally manageable, the time may have passed for raising taxes enough to accumulate a meaningful Social Security trust fund that would make investing in equities worthwhile. |
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Medicare Finances: A 2023 Update with Alicia Munnell Center for Retirement Research at Boston College Issue Brief, 23-11, 2023 The 2023 Medicare Trustees Report contained no bad news. In fact, in Part A, the depletion of the HI trust fund was pushed out three years and the HI deficit was at the low end of post-ACA numbers, while expenditures for Part B and Part D were actually slightly below those in the 2022 report. That said, Medicare does face significant financing challenges: it operates in a country with extraordinarily high health care costs and it has some serious gaps in protection. |